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Learn the Business of I-28 Portlandsterdam University |
I-28 Polling Results Grove Insight Download a copy of the PDF here New Signature Sheet Here - Download and Sign the I-28 Petition.
TO: Voter PowerFROM: Lisa Grove, Ben Patinkin and Melissa Chernaik Grove Insight, Ltd. RE: A Strong Majority of Voters Support Initiative Petition 28 – the Medical Marijuana Supply System Measure DATE: December 19, 2008 This analysis is based on 500 interviews among likely 2010 general election voters in Oregon. The survey was conducted December 3 - 7, 2008. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher. A Strong Majority of Voters Support the Ballot Title Encapsulated in Initiative Petition 28 – the Medical Marijuana Supply System Measure. This first look at the electorate’s feelings about Initiative Petition 28 is encouraging. However, it is important to bear in mind that only positive messages were tested and we do not yet know what an opposition campaign would look like, or how effective their messages might be at eroding support
Bolstered by their favorable feelings toward Oregon’s 1998 Medical Marijuana Act, nearly six in 10 Oregonians favor the idea of establishing a “medical marijuana supply system and assistance and research programs.” Initiative backers enjoy a 27 point lead over opponents, who number justover three in 10.
The “yes” side holds a consistent lead across most major demographic and geographic groups and, in fact, achieves a majority in every region, save Oregon’s most rural media markets. The measure’s most adamant backers include Democrats, who offer a 48 point margin of support, Independents (+43), voters younger than 50 (+47) and voters in the Tri-County area (+40). Only Republicans oppose the initiative at this time (- 7), yet this opposition fails to cross the majority mark. These findings indicate that the measure could pass in 2010. However, after hearing several compelling messages in support of the initiative (and none against) voter support remained static. The lack of positive movement, given the absence of negative messages in the poll, concerns us. This is a clear indication that a strong, well-funded “yes” campaign (including a search for better messages) is absolutely essential to ensure victory. Voter Power must have the resources to communicate with voters, in order to hold on to its backers and shore up those who indicate softer support. Only by successfully getting the word out will Voter Power win in 2010. I am going to read you possible ballot language that may appear on the 2010 ballot. It reads as follows: “Establishes medical marijuana supply system and assistance and research programs. Allows limited selling of marijuana. A ‘yes’ vote establishes supply system, low income assistance program for medical marijuana cardholders. Establishes research program and grants limited state regulation authority. Allows limited marijuana sales. A ‘no’ vote retains current law without supply or assistance programs for medical marijuana cardholders, or authorization for state organized scientific program; or medical marijuana sales.” If the election were held today, would you vote yes or no on this measure, or are you undecided? Yes 59% No 32% Undecided 10% Margin of support +27
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